Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • US
  • Mexico
  • Panama
  • Belize
  • Costa Rica
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Jamaica

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,206,647$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,834,321.6}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 484.3)}}\) (asimptote \(160,834,321.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $310,699$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 138.1)}}\) (asimptote \(297,568.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,895,948$ on 2020-12-17

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,289,298$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,304,417.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 177.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,304,417.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $116,487$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,930.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.7)}}\) (asimptote \(111,930.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $219,049$ on 2020-12-17

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $203,295$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{197,596.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 186.8)}}\) (asimptote \(197,596.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,481$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,196.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 157.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,196.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,576$ on 2020-12-17

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,791$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $213$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,293.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 308.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,293.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,799$ on 2020-12-17

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $156,388$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{165,731.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 213.1)}}\) (asimptote \(165,731.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,980$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,013.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 203.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,013.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,501$ on 2020-12-17

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $492,582$ on 2020-12-17

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,940$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,076.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 61.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,076.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74,975$ on 2020-12-17

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $115,474$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,070.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 164.4)}}\) (asimptote \(116,070.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,021$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,959.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 141.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,959.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,954$ on 2020-12-17

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,435$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,351.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 152.6)}}\) (asimptote \(124,351.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,551$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,107.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,107.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,136$ on 2020-12-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Trinidad and Tobago recovered 82%
Costa Rica recovered 43%
Jamaica recovered 31%

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,940$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,486.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 188.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,486.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 181.3)}}\) (asimptote \(121.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $432$ on 2020-12-17

Jamaica⮸

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,968$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,644.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 200.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11,644.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $279$ on 2020-12-17

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 206.7)}}\) (asimptote \(273.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,164$ on 2020-12-17